The Media Industry Foresight Study paints four scenarios that explore potential future trajectories for forces of change, uncertainties and disruptions in the media industry. The study offers media professionals and organisations fresh perspectives on strategy work, renewal and growth.
The media industry is changing at a rapid pace. It is difficult to predict how it will change and evolve in the future because that future seems extremely uncertain and unstable and therefore open to multiple interpretations. That is why it is important for us to identify drivers of future change and to project how they will impact the work of media professionals and media organisations.
The purpose of this Media Industry Foresight Study is to explore what the possible futures of media and media organisations might look like in 2035. It introduces four scenarios for the future of media: “Media on a Continuum”, “Battle for Information”, “Renaissance of Journalism”, and “Power of Entertainment”. These scenarios are not intended to be read as forecasts for the future of media but rather as narratives that describe possible futures and the forces of change, disruptions and uncertainties at play.
The first scenario Media on a Continuum describes a future where changes in the media industry are in line with expectations but relatively slow. The industry is continuing to consolidate and to combat international competition; traditional media uses remain strong; and consumers are increasingly using social community media.
The second scenario Battle for Information defines a future world where free communication is threatened by geopolitical crises and information influencing. At the same time, freedom of expression is under threat from mounting national security pressures.
In the third scenario of Renaissance of Journalism, AI content pollution and polycrisis are creating a confusing and fragmented information environment. This is increasing the need for reliable journalistic information but also pushing people towards alternative truths.
In the world portrayed in the fourth scenario Power of Entertainment, technology-driven content production and the growth of social inequities have caused increasing divergence in people’s media uses. The two major media consumption groups are the paywall elite, who can afford to invest in quality and depth of content, and the digital precariat, who are captivated by high octane entertainment and its addictive algorithms.
The aim and purpose of the media scenarios is first and foremost to stimulate new discussion about the futures of media and to equip media professionals and organisations with the tools and capabilities needed to challenge existing assumptions and to anticipate the future. The report offers challenging future perspectives on strategic thinking, the identification of new growth areas and competence development. The strategic foresight roadmap at the end of the report provides a tool to help put the scenarios to practical use in strategy and development work.
The Media Industry Foresight Study was conducted by the consulting firm Capful and funded by the Media Industry Research Foundation of Finland.
Final report: Media Industry Foresight Study – Media 2035 (pdf)
